BEIRUT/OXFORD, England – For decades, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have exported oil and recycled petrodollars through Western markets and received military protection from the United States. This arrangement has often been described as a strategic alliance. In reality, it is more like a system of “protection for sale,” in which the GCC has effectively purchased security guarantees through arms contracts, basing rights and geopolitical alignment.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has exposed the inherent fragility of this model and called into question the credibility of the entire deterrence architecture. Despite the massive U.S. military presence in the region, Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and unleash a barrage of strikes across the GCC has demonstrated that the U.S. cannot guarantee the security of its own installations, let alone that of the Gulf countries. American bases and personnel have become vulnerable assets, even as the U.S. projects power globally.
The reason for this asymmetry is clear: Missile and drone warfare have fundamentally changed the cost structure of conflict. Low-cost drones, in particular, have enabled Iran to pose a credible threat to extremely expensive assets such as air bases, ports and oil facilities. The marginal cost of disruption is now far lower than the marginal cost of defense.
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