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Daniel Moss
New U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh holds a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington on June 17.
COMMENTARY / World
Jun 25, 2026
Warsh Fed era heralds a new trial for Asian currencies
The Warsh era has arrived. In his first news conference, the chair described it as a new chapter for the Fed. Asia needs to read in quickly.
The yen has traded in a narrow ¥158 to ¥159 range against the dollar for two months as Japan steps up efforts to contain further weakness.
COMMENTARY
May 5, 2026
‘Keep phones on,’ Tokyo warns as yen battle intensifies
Traders are going to need to hold onto their devices going forward, as these kinds of interventions are becoming the new normal.
Famed biologist and author Paul Ehrlich predicted disaster from overpopulation. But today the challenge is declining fertility, with governments in Asia and Europe seeking ways to boost births to maintain economic and social stability.
COMMENTARY / World
Mar 29, 2026
Paul Ehrlich’s ‘Population Bomb’ never went off but did great harm
This isn’t the world that Ehrlich, who died on March 13, envisaged when he published “The Population Bomb” in 1968
Thailand's goal of becoming a high-income economy by 2037 is in jeopardy, with gross national income per capita likely to be short of the threshold.
COMMENTARY / World
Feb 27, 2026
Thai leaders won big. Their economy is still sick.
The country faces challenges such as a drop in tourism, competition from cheaper Chinese electric vehicles, and a baby bust with low fertility rates.
Singapore’s stalled birthrate reflects a broader pattern across wealthy Asian economies where higher living standards, shifting values and gender imbalances have made low fertility persistent and resistant to quick policy fixes.
COMMENTARY / World
Feb 10, 2026
Why Asia can’t undo decades of falling fertility rates
The challenge is shared by most successful nations. Ultralow fertility is a byproduct of rapid development and elevated living standards.
A monitor at the foreign exchange trading company Gaitame.com in Tokyo displays the yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar at the company's dealing room on Monday.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Jan 28, 2026
Japan is getting creative with its response to the weak yen
But if Tokyo is indeed coordinating policy — or messaging at least — with the U.S. to strengthen the currency, it marks a new and more creative era.
Asia’s economic growth in 2025 was sluggish, central banks acted cautiously amid low inflation and political pressures and the full impact of U.S. tariffs and policy choices will become clearer in 2026.
COMMENTARY / World
Dec 25, 2025
Easy money defined Asia in 2025. It gets harder now.
If predictions are hazardous at the best of times, they are more fraught today.
Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda attends a news conference in Tokyo on Friday. The BOJ raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest in 30 years and indicated more increases are in the pipeline if conditions allow.
COMMENTARY
Dec 24, 2025
Bank of Japan’s rate hike likely first of many
Today’s Japan is different. Friday’s decision is a milestone. To hear it from the bank, there is still some distance to go.
China is again restraining currency appreciation as market pressure builds, with the People’s Bank of China using reference rate settings and state bank actions to slow gains in order to protect exports and manage economic weakness.
COMMENTARY / World
Dec 18, 2025
Why the push for a stronger yuan won’t go away
China has been skirting deflation and a strong currency could exacerbate the difficulties.
Currency forecasts can be unreliable, as the yen’s recent weakness highlights the limits of intervention and the influence of narratives over economic fundamentals.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Nov 28, 2025
We need to shatter one big myth about the weak yen
That the PM’s extra budget, amounting to less than 3% of GDP, should trigger the weakening seen in recent weeks makes little sense — particularly given record tax revenue.
The People's Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng addresses the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai on June 18. The nation's central bank is resisting the global habit of cutting rates as insurance against economic risks.
COMMENTARY / World
Nov 26, 2025
Don’t fight the fed. But is China worth a shot?
While the PBOC can’t shake the global economy in quite the same way, and doesn’t have the same independence as the Fed, its sway is significant.
Despite concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and global trade disruptions, the dollar remains dominant in global finance, with the Chinese yuan gaining ground but still far from challenging its supremacy.
COMMENTARY
Oct 8, 2025
Best evidence yet that the U.S. dollar isn’t close to being dead
The dollar was on one side of 89.2% of all trades, up a touch from the 2022 result.
James Baker speaks at the funeral service for former U.S. President George Bush in Houston in December 2018. As Treasury secretary in 1985, he was the key U.S. negotiator of the Plaza Accord, the landmark deal to weaken the dollar and realign global currencies.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Sep 22, 2025
Why the Plaza Accord is still the gold standard
Rather than grieve Plaza, salute it. The deal reflected a confluence of national interest, diplomatic nous and a sense that common interests dictated collaboration.
Australia’s past economic “golden ages” show how bold reforms drove growth, but policymakers now face the challenge of boosting productivity and preparing the nation for a more competitive global environment.
COMMENTARY / World
Sep 16, 2025
Can Australia achieve a third economic golden age?
The ’80s and ’90s were the heydays of reform. The challenge now is how to move forward.
China’s economy shows signs of a possible recovery despite structural challenges and imperfect GDP data, but its future growth and global impact hinge on trade relations with the U.S. and how economic progress is measured.
COMMENTARY / World
Jul 10, 2025
Taking GDP out of the China equation
There are problems with looking at China’s vitality through the GDP lens — the data is widely perceived to be finessed by officials
A family travels by motorbike in Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam is grappling with two significant challenges: a declining birth rate, prompting policy shifts to encourage larger families, and the economic threat of U.S. tariffs.
COMMENTARY / World
Jun 13, 2025
Vietnam has far bigger worries than its baby bust
Vietnam is grappling with two significant challenges: a declining birth rate, prompting policy shifts to encourage larger families and the economic threat of U.S. tariffs.
Despite doubts and talk of alternatives in Asia and beyond, the dollar remains dominant because there are no viable rivals and it continues to serve as the world’s key safe asset.
COMMENTARY / World
Jun 3, 2025
The problem with Asia’s ‘sell America’ moment
The region’s currencies are enjoying a healthy rally. History warns against anti-dollar triumphalism.
Amid trade war uncertainty, central bankers, including Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda, are leaning toward cautious policies, with some signaling potential rate cuts while awaiting the fallout from U.S. tariffs.
COMMENTARY / World
Apr 22, 2025
Rate cuts anyone? Anyone? Ferris Bueller’s tariff lesson
The collective sense of “we don’t know” will give way to either hiking or easing. In Asia, the bias appears to favor the latter.
Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs have dealt a blow to U.S. credibility and the greenback. It’s a bigger leap to project the currency's demise.
COMMENTARY / World
Apr 16, 2025
King dollar’s reign looks secure — for now
The greenback survived Trump’s first term at the pinnacle and will likely endure his second.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is reasserting military influence in politics, pushing fiscal policies that challenge long-standing restraints and accelerating democratic backsliding — moves that are causing economic instability and political unease.
COMMENTARY / World
Apr 1, 2025
Prabowo tries to remake Indonesia, but at what cost?
The economic and political pillars that emerged after the turmoil of 1998 are in peril. Markets are rightly apprehensive. 

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